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Super Bowl XLIV

For the first time since the 1993 season, the top two seeds have made it to the Super Bowl. While there may not be a Cinderella story this year, I think it's fair to say that the Saints will be viewed as this year’s feel good story. Not only are they an underdog going up against what many have started to call the best quarterback ever, but they will also be playing for their fans and their city. After the devastation of Katrina, the Saints will be looking to do their part to help rebuild the city of New Orleans and what better way to do it than with a Super Bowl victory. It's been a long time coming for the Saints and their fans who many people forget were actually the team that lost to the Bears in the NFC Championship game the year the Colts won the Super Bowl. New Orleans got off to a flying start winning their first 12 games and averaging nearly 34 points a game capped by a pretty much perfect 38-17 victory against the Patriots on Monday Night Football. Since then however, this team has not really been the same. They lost three out of their last five regular season games and they should've lost another one of those games to Washington. While the Saints did put a beating on Arizona in their first playoff game, let's remember that the Cardinals defense let up 90+ points in their two playoff games. They then beat Minnesota in a game they could've easily lost if not for Minnesota turning the ball over every five seconds. All in all it still doesn’t seem as if the Saints have completely righted the ship coming off of the rough end to their regular season. 
 
The Colts on the other hand seem to be getting stronger and it appears that their decision to forfeit a perfect season and rest their starters may be paying off. The Colts played ok against Baltimore however I think their defense really made a statement in that game by shutting down Ray Rice. They then welcomed in the Jets for the Conference Championship game in which Peyton Manning showed the entire world why he just won his fourth MVP. After a slow start, Manning picked apart the vaunted Jets defense scoring 24 unanswered points. The Colts defense has probably been the most underrated unit this entire post season. After letting up the 8th fewest points during the regular season, the undersized yet extremely fast Colt defense shut down an emerging star in Ray Rice followed by the number one rushing attack in the NFL in the Jets. Led by first year head coach Jim Caldwell, the Colts comes into this Super Bowl as an experienced team which won a lot of close games during the regular season. 
 
So far the biggest story this week has been the health of Colts star Defensive End Dwight Freeney. Freeney was third in the league in sacks this year and can take over a game at any time. At this point the word is that Freeney, who suffered torn ligaments in his ankle against the Jets, is seeing improvements in the ankle and feels confident that he can play. I think even if Freeney can play he will be ineffective. Freeney is a smaller DE that relies on his speed and spin moves to get to the quarterback. If he is unable to spin and cut without pain, he will not be able to make plays. This means that Robert Mathis, who plays opposite Freeney for the Colts, may be facing double teams. That being said, I think it’s an even bigger reason for the Saints to stick to their strength and throw the ball. The Colts have already proven that they can stop the run and assuming Freeney is not himself, Brees should have even more time to throw the ball down the field. I think in order for the Saints to win this game they need to turn it into a shootout. 
 
On the other side of the ball, the Saints defense finished 25th in the NFL this year, however they were second in the league in forcing turnovers. First year defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has already stated that he will make it a point to hit Peyton Manning early and often in an effort to force him into mistakes saying: 
 
“This guy’s got a great clock in his head. The big thing is that he throws the ball so early that we’re going to have to do a good job of finding ways to get to him and when we do get to him we’re going to have to make sure he gets a couple ‘remember me’ shots when we get there ...”

When asked if he is concerned about his players getting flagged for hitting Manning, Williams responded with the following:
“Here’s the deal. When you put too much of that type of worry on a warrior’s mind, he doesn’t play all out. If it happens, it happens. And the only thing you’d like for me to say is that if it happens you hope he doesn’t get back up and play again.”
Here's the thing Gregg...how often do people actually get to Peyton Manning? He only got sacked 10 times the whole year. The Jets sacked him twice and look at what he did to them. Plus I don't think the Saints will be able to shut down Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark the way the Jets did. Aside from that, if you blitz Manning and don't get to him, he's going to hurt you. From what I can see, the only way for the Saints defense to survive Manning and his weapons is to get turnovers. If they don't strip the ball or force Manning into making a mistake he is going to tear them apart. 
 
I'm still not sure where I'm at with this game. The line has been sitting at 5 1/2 all week up 2 points from where it originally opened. So far, every expert I've seen and pretty much the entire betting world is picking the Colts. I know I said that the Colt defense was underrated and that they have played great so far but remember they also did that against the one dimensional offenses of the Ravens and Jets. The Saints bring a whole other element to the table with Brees and their passing game. Will the Saints defense continue to be able to force turnovers? Will the Colts be able to hit Brees enough to get him rattled? I haven't decided yet, but be sure to check back in before the game for my pick.